KLM – everything’s going to be fine. Really.

I flew from Manston to Schipol a couple of weeks after the service started. On the 10am flight, not the 6:30am NIGHT FLIGHT, naturally. 

The charming staff told me that the first couple of days had been “mad busy”, with VIPs and bigwigs jetting back and forth – on free tickets presumably – but things had quietened down since then.

There were 16 passengers on my flight on the way out, 12 on the way back. And, yes, I do realise that one trip is no more than a snapshot and may not be representative.

It’s an uncrowded, quick and convenient journey, but clearly not sustainable if the planes are flying less than a quarter full. I’ll let you know what it’s like the next time I go – I hope to make the most of this route before KLM pulls the plug. My guess is that KLM will tough it out for the summer season, suspend it for the winter, and then simply not restart.

---

Manston Airport bosses confident of KLM future

Bosses at
Manston Airport have said they are confident that a new passenger
service to Amsterdam has a future. It comes after passengers said they
had travelled on KLM planes that were less than half full.

The
Dutch carrier started twice-daily flights from East Kent to Schiphol
three months ago. Charles Buchanan, Manston’s chief executive, told the
BBC that the new service was a success:

“We
have some flights that are less full than others
obviously, but we’ve had others that are absolutely jam-packed and not a
spare seat to be had. That’s the normal way of aviation – you get some
that are full and some that are less so. We’re confident that the
service has a future. This is a growing service, the forward bookings
are coming in at a good rate.”

KLM started running two morning flights from Manston, with
one returning in mid-morning and the other in the evening, starting on 2
April.

BBC 1st Jul 2013

Why throw good money at bad airport?

In the hope of finding why KCC are peeing our money away, we’ve asked Sharon Dawson (top banana at Visit Kent) some simple and obvious questions. We’ll let you know what, if anything, comes of them.

---

Dear Ms Dawson,

I understand that Visit Kent has been given £100,000 of public money in order to ‘market’ KLM flights at Manston.  My understanding is that you believe that this money is to enable you to bring visitors into the county as tourists to the county in order to spend money in the county.

I would be grateful if you could answer some questions.

1. What research have KCC or Visit Kent done in terms of revenue brought specifically into a county that has a regional airport? The research I have undertaken shows that regional airports are exporters of tourists to a very significant degree and that even those visitors they do attract  tend to head straight for major tourist centres, most notably London, Edinburgh, Glasgow etc. could you provide me with some concrete evidence that you have that shows significant revenue streams from incoming tourists at comparable regional airports?  I am assuming that such research must be available or such a significant sum of money would not have been committed to a privately owned operation?

2. Exactly how is this money to be spent and where? Given the aim is to attract foreign visitors – which countries/cities/areas are to be targeted and on what basis? I would like confirmation that no money is to be spent advertising outward bound routes given that simply takes money OUT the county. The UK’s tourism deficit is already greater than in any other country so it hardly benefits our ailing economy, both local and national to spend public money on persuading people to spend their money abroad.

I look forward to hearing from you.

Council throws good money at bad airport

KCC + KLM + KIA = WTF

Getting a straight answer out of KCC is hard at the best of times – even with the legal leverage of the Freedom of Information Act it can take months. But it’s usually worth the wait, and the dogged persistence is rewarded. And let’s not forget, anything that’s released under the FoI Act is stuff that they should have told you in the first place. By definition.

A man of Kent, showing the finest British bulldog determination and tenacity set about finding out if there are any hidden deals behind the recently announced KLM-Manston story. Eventually, he managed to prise these three sentences out of them:

I can confirm Kent County Council has not been asked for any contributions from KLM nor have we been asked to fund KLM.

We were however, asked by the owners of Manston airport if we would contribute to a marketing package to market both the route and the opportunities in Kent.

We have agreed a contribution of up to £100,000 subject to approval of a marketing plan and for the monies to be managed by Visit Kent.

Regular readers will remember that KCC and Infratil colluded in a bid to central Government which included a generous £600k sweetener for KLM – effectively “we’ll pay you to use this airport”. They were turned down, quite rightly.

We’ll probably never know whether KLM had put pressure on them to cross their palm with silver, or whether KCC and Infratil are simply very generous (with other people’s money), but it’s depressingly unsurprising to find that they’re at it again.

Everyone knows Infratil is selling Manston airport. More accurately, Infratil is trying to sell Manston airport – it’s been on the market since March 2012, and the asking price seems to be sinking to the same level as airport-free agricultural land. Despite this, they have the balls to ask KCC for money to market and promote the highest profile route they’ve got (even though it isn’t even running yet). KCC, unspeakable idiots that they are, agreed!

For reasons best known to KCC – but I suspect connected to EU competition regulations – they will be “laundering” the money through Visit Kent. So Kent County Council is happy to use public money to market a French/Dutch airline flying from a New Zealand-owned airport. And, yes, this is the same KCC that’s cutting funding to things that people care about.

What makes KCC think this will be money well spent? And what exactly are Visit Kent going to be doing? Good questions, which we have asked on your behalf.

Game-changer – Manston to stop being an airport

Manston and Prestwick have proved hard to sell. Unsurprisingly. Infratil wants to sell them because they’re failures – and that’s why they’re hard to sell.

Infratil has been losing millions every year, for years, and they’re
eager to staunch the flow. The penny seems to have dropped that these
two failed airports would be easier to sell… if they weren’t airports.

So Infratil is putting the word out that they’re prepared to stump up
cash to help potential buyers transform the airports into, er,
something they actually want to buy.

Do feel free to use the comments section to pass on any helpful
suggestions for Manton’s future… theme park… solar farm… race
track… nature reserve…

---

Infratil says it would consider investing in its two British
airports to change their functions to help make them more attractive to
sell.

The listed infrastructure investor’s Glasgow Prestwick and Kent
airports are for sale after years of under-performance. Last week, Dutch
national carrier KLM confirmed it would start making twice daily flights
from the Kent airport to Amsterdam from April 2013.

Infratil executive Tim Brown says the process of selling the airports
has taken longer than the company expected. He says the company now has
to look at a range of complex proposals and if the use of an airport is
going to change, it will have ramifications for local communities.

Mr Brown says if airports are very successful then councils or cities
often then tax them, but if they are struggling they may then either
need subsidies or be closed and put to alternative use. He says the
debate then becomes more complicated, which makes timeframes more
difficult to guess. Mr Brown would neither confirm or deny whether
Infratil is looking to buy Stanstead Airport in London.

Copyright © 2012, Radio New Zealand 19 November 2012

KLM-Manston: news reports

Reports from the national and local press, and a couple of interesting takes on the story from the trade press.

---

BBC 13th Nov 2012

New twice-daily flights from Manston to Amsterdam

An airline has announced a new service from Manston to Amsterdam with
the creation of 28 jobs in Kent. KLM Royal Dutch Airline which is
merged with Air France said it will run a twice daily service from the
Kent airport to Schiphol in Amsterdam. In September KLM asked Manston to
conduct a survey to find out what the level of demand was for the
service.

The new 55-minute flights will link Manston to more than 130
destinations from Amsterdam. The airport said that of the 9,300
responses to its survey, 80% came from CT postcodes in East Kent.

Just over 80% said they would use a direct service to Amsterdam, with
60% then connecting with flights to other parts of Europe. Of those
responding 96% said they would use Manston in preference to other
airports. KLM is to run two morning flights from Manston, with one
returning in mid-morning and the other in the evening.

The New Zealand company Infratil, which also owns Prestwick Airport,
put its two UK airports up for sale in March this year. Infratil said
that it would “continue to seek a buyer for the airports and work with local stakeholders to review alternatives”. Together Prestwick and Manston airports recorded losses for the six months to the end of September of just over £2m.

Passengers travelling through the airports fell by more than 180,000
during the period compared with the same time in 2011, although freight
business increased. Budget airline Flybe pulled out of Manston in March
saying flights from Kent were not economically viable. Manston has been
valued at £7.6m.

---

kentnews.co.uk 14th Nov 2012

Full details of KLM Manston to Amsterdam service

The news that KLM will operate flights from Manston airport in Thanet to Amsterdam has been warmly welcomed.

Last night, KLM Royal Dutch Airlines gave the go ahead to twice-daily
flights from Kent to Schiphol in Amsterdam. From there passengers will
be able to travel to over 130 destinations worldwide. The move is set to
boost tourism in Kent as well as make it easier for local businesses to
trade abroad. The flights will also allow Kent residents to travel
without the hassle of flying from London airports.

Manston airport bosses have said they are now planning to recruit 28
extra staff for the flights which start on April 2 and go on sale today.
Each return flight will cost £99 and the first flight leaves Kent at
6.35am with the last flight returning at 9.45pm.

Henri Hourcade, general manager for KLM in the UK said:

“Demand for efficient and convenient schedules to long-haul
destinations from the UK continues to grow, to emerging markets in Latin
America, Africa and the Far East, but equally to established markets
such as North America. By connecting the UK regions to worldwide
destinations, KLM is offering more choice to holidaymakers, but equally
adding to the infrastructure for regional UK businesses.”

Charles Buchanan, chief executive at Manston Airport, said:

“The new services will be a real benefit to Kent and its residents.
Passengers will be able to arrive at Manston, park adjacent to the
terminal building, check in and be on the flight to Amsterdam within
minutes, a hassle-free experience that makes travelling a pleasure.
Passengers from Manston can leave home without the worries of road
congestion or excessive flight delays affecting their journey.”

---

thisiskent 16th Nov 2012

Flights between Manston and Amsterdam to create 28 jobs in Kent

Thanet will be linked with 130 global destinations after Air France
KLM announced two new daily flights from Manston to Europe’s
fourth-busiest airport. The Franco-Dutch airline will offer the new
service between Manston and Schiphol Airport, near Amsterdam in The
Netherlands, from April 2 – creating 28 new jobs at the Thanet airport.

Two morning flights from Manston will each be able to carry 80
passengers – with a return to Amsterdam costing as little as £99. A
Fokker 70 jet will run the services at 6.35am and 10.40am from Manston,
with a total flight time of under an hour.

After making the announcement at Canterbury Cathedral Lodge on Tuesday, Manston Airport chief executive Charles Buchanan said:

“This is great news for Kent, great news for Manston and great news
for KLM. We are physically the closest airport for most of Kent.
Passengers will be able to arrive at Manston, park adjacent to the
terminal building, check in and be on the flight to Amsterdam within
minutes.”

Air France KLM was convinced the service would take off after a
consultation received more than 9,000 responses last month. About 96 per
cent of Kent residents who gave their views said they would use the
service. The airline’s UK general manager, Henri Hourcade, said on
Tuesday:

“It’s an airport which has proved to be reliable – a small terminal,
English-speaking, good shopping. We think there are people in Kent who
are fed up with traffic, the M25, expensive parking, and saturated
airports, and we will offer a hassle-free alternative to London.”

Mr Hourcade said Thanet would also become a destination for incoming passengers, adding:

“Manston will be part of our global map. It will be with our sales forces all around the planet.”

Passengers will be able to connect to countries such as Brazil, South
Africa and the USA, via Air France KLM’s main airports – Schiphol and
Charles De Gaulle Airport in Paris, France. The new service comes after a
year of some disappointments for Manston. Budget airline Flybe pulled
services to Edinburgh and Belfast, and Thanet council voted not to allow
limited scheduled flights at night. The airport was put up for sale by
its owners, the New Zealand-based Infratil.

Tickets for the new service are available now at www.klm.com

---

Travel Weekly 14th Nov 2012

KLM to launch from Kent to Schiphol

KLM will begin flying from Manston Airport in Kent next April,
operating twice daily services to Amsterdam Schiphol. The launch from
Manston is something of a surprise as the loss-making airport is up for
sale, has little traffic and previous scheduled services have been
pulled.

Airport owner Infratil, the New Zealand-based infrastructure
investment firm, reported a £22 million write-down in the value of its
two UK airports, Manston and Glasgow Prestwick, this week. KLM will
commence the services on April 2, using an 80-seat Fokker 70 aircraft.
Tickets go on sale today.

Manston will be the carrier’s 17th UK departure airport. Air France-KLM UK general manager Henri Hourcade said:

“UK demand for convenient schedules to long-haul destinations
continues to grow. KLM offers more choice to holidaymakers by connecting
the UK regions to worldwide destinations.”

Manston Airport chief executive Charles Buchanan said:

“The new services will be a real benefit to Kent residents.
Passengers will be able to arrive at Manston, park adjacent to the
terminal building and be on the flight to Amsterdam within minutes.”

Manston, also known as Kent International Airport, has a chequered
history for scheduled flights. Flybe ceased operating daily services
from Manston to Edinburgh, Belfast and Manchester in March this year.
The last carrier to base itself at Manston, Irish airline EUjet, ceased
flying in 2005 – when Manston also went into liquidation before being
bought by Infratil. Spanish charter carrier Futura Airlines and tour
operator Seguro Travel, which also traded as Kent Escapes, operated from
Manston until both ceased trading in September 2008.

At present the airport offers a weekly service to Jersey from May to
September and a handful of summer charter flights. The KLM services to
Schiphol are scheduled to depart Manston at 6:35am and 10:40am and
return from Schiphol at 10:10am and 8:50pm.

---

FlightGlobal 14th Nov 2012

KLM sidelines Heathrow with Manston feeder service

KLM’s new feeder service from Manston airport to its Amsterdam
Schiphol hub illustrates a growing trend of connecting traffic being
funnelled outside the UK in lieu of spare capacity at London Heathrow
airport. Manston in Kent, southeast England will become the 17th UK
destination served by KLM on 2 April 2013, the airline announced this
week. The route will be served twice daily by regional subsidiary KLM
Cityhopper with 80-seater Fokker 70s.

Henri Hourcade, general manager for Air France-KLM in the UK, tells
Flightglobal that he expects “about two-thirds” of passengers on the
Manston-Schiphol route to be connecting traffic. Heathrow’s widely
publicised capacity constraints are motivating increasing numbers of
people to connect via hubs on mainland Europe, he argues.

“Saturation [at Heathrow] makes air traffic control difficult and it
causes delays, whereas Schiphol is unsaturated. Schiphol is an easy
airport for connections, and UK travellers know that. It’s English
speaking and it’s a one-terminal concept.”

Manston airport chief executive Charles Buchanan agrees, saying
EasyJet’s decision to base aircraft at London Southend airport
underscores the growing appeal of secondary bases.

“This is the start of people looking at diversifying their point of
service. We’ve seen it at Southend and this is a similar move for
Manston – a different type of service, but it’s all part of the same
picture.”

Outlining the airport’s expansion plans, Buchanan acknowledges that
the withdrawal of UK regional carrier Flybe was a blow for Manston, but
he says “regular dialogue” is continuing with a “whole range of
airlines”.

“We’re looking for organic, progressive growth to exploit the market
south and east of London, rather than a big bang. We want to grow,
consolidate, and grow again. This is a very important first step. The
vote of confidence from KLM will catch people’s attention. They will
recognise what opportunities there are in serving those markets without
having to go through the main airport.”

Alongside its Cityhopper brand, KLM also has a presence at London
City airport through its Irish subsidiary CityJet, which is undergoing a
strategic review by parent Air France-KLM. Insisting the two
subsidiaries fulfil separate functions, Hourcade says Cityhopper
operates a “hub strategy” feeding Schiphol whereas CityJet combines a
feeder service for Paris Charles de Gaulle airport with a secondary hub
at London City.

Returning to the motivation for launching at Manston, he voices
optimism about demand levels given the airport’s densely populated
catchment area.

“It’s tough to reach the London airports from here. For long-haul at
Heathrow people leave four hours before departure because of the traffic
risk on the M25. But 400,000 people live less than half an hour from
Manston airport. In the whole of Kent there are 1.6 million people less
than one hour away. With quick access to a hassle-free airport, cheap
parking, and good quality connections at Schiphol, we are confident of
attracting customers.”

KLM-Manston: reactions

Reactions from Sir Roger Gale MP, Laura Sandys MP, Sandra
Matthews-Marsh (chief executive at Visit Kent), David Foley (east Kent
Chamber of Commerce chief executive), Cllr Bob Bayford (Thanet
Conservative Group), and Cllr Clive Hart (Leader of Thanet District
Council).

The news has been welcomed by groups in Kent including Sir Roger Gale MP. He said:

“For more than twenty years a few of us have staked our faith in the
belief that Manston has a job-creating future as a successful regional
airport. We have, of course, seen some false starts but this is the
first time that a major international flag-carrier has made a commitment
to regular flights to mainland Europe. With Schiphol`s status as one of
Europe`s fastest-growing inter-lining airports this move really does
connect Kent with the rest of the world and the rest of the world with
Kent.”

Laura Sandys, MP

I am delighted that KLM have decided to start offering flights from
Manston. This makes Thanet even better connected with the rest of the
world and makes our area a more attractive place to invest. I am very
much looking forward to supporting KLM to ensure that this route is a
success.

Sandra Matthews-Marsh, chief executive at Visit Kent, said:

“This is a tremendous opportunity for tourism businesses across East
Kent and beyond. We now have a real opportunity to persuade more people
heading to England to fly into Manston and discover the outstanding
heritage, countryside and coast on London’s doorstep with excellent
transport links into the heart of the capital.

Visit Kent already has very strong relationships with tourism
partners in The Netherlands and we will continue to work closely with
them to promote our county in their local markets for regular short
breaks and day trips. Visit Kent was delighted to be invited to work
with the airport team at Manston to promote Kent as a great destination
for KLM passengers.”

Thanet and east Kent Chamber of Commerce chief executive David Foley said:

“This news follows closely the announcement of a projected minimum of
3,000 jobs at the Discovery Park in Sandwich making for an excellent
few weeks. Given the considerable savings in time and money to local
long haul passengers transiting via Amsterdam, there is every reason to
suppose that the arrival of KLM in Manston will stimulate employment in
East Kent, reduce costs for exporters and boost tourism throughout the
county. From today, the business community can shout loudly that Kent
Loves Manston.

Given the considerable savings in time and money to local long-haul
passengers transiting via Amsterdam, there is every reason to suppose
that the arrival of KLM in Manston will stimulate employment in east
Kent, reduce costs for exporters and boost tourism.”

Thanet Conservative group leader Councillor Bob Bayford said:

“We desperately need jobs here and the Conservative group has always
maintained that the airport could play a crucial role in the
regeneration of Thanet. The Labour administration’s short-sighted ‘no
night flights’ policy would effectively ban this service, simply because
one of the flights is 25 minutes before 7am, yet this is exactly the
type of flexibility that we have long argued for.”

Thanet Conservative Group has welcomed the announcement that
KLM will introduce a twice daily service between Manston and Amsterdam
in April 2013. Conservative Group Leader, Cllr Bob Bayford said:

“This is very positive news for both Manston Airport and for Thanet,
particularly the immediate creation of nearly 30 jobs. We desperately
need jobs here and the Conservative Group has always maintained that the
airport could play a crucial role in the regeneration of Thanet.  The
Labour administration’s short sighted ‘no night flights’ policy would
effectively ban this service, simply because one of the flights is 25
minutes before 7am, yet this is exactly the type of flexibility that the
Conservative Group has long argued for.”

Cllr Bayford also noted that the number of valid objections to ‘night
flights’ from Labour’s flawed consultation earlier this year was just
1329, whilst KLM’s online survey produced over 9000 responses, 96% of
which expressed demand for the service, and 80% of which were from
within the Thanet area.

Thanet council leader Clive Hart tempered his enthusiasm with
apparent concern for those residents who have opposed night flights. Mr
Hart said the proposal would be allowed under a current Section 106
agreement banning certain night flights, as the KLM service would use a
“quieter aircraft” carrying passengers to a European destination. He
said:

“I welcome it most definitely – especially the jobs. In an ideal
world I would have much preferred it if the later flight was at 7am,
however, we are where we are.”

Thanet District Council has warmly received the announcement
made in Canterbury, that from 2 April, a new KLM service will operate
from Manston Airport to Schiphol in Amsterdam. The service is within the
parameters of the section 106 Agreement with Manston. Council Leader
and Cabinet Member for Strategic Economic Development Services Cllr
Clive Hart said:

“Thanet District Council welcomes this positive news and looks
forward to what we hope is a new future for Manston Airport, which
balances a bright economic future with empathy for the local environment
and our residents. Thanet is a beautiful place and we would have
welcomed the opportunity to have held Tuesday evening’s event in our
district, I sincerely hope we will be given that honour in the future.”

KLM-Manston: analysis

Regular readers will recall that the last time KLM showed any interest in Manston, they were being lured by the promise of £600,000
– money which Manston and KCC were trying to prise out of the
Government’s Regional Growth Fund. The Government said “No”, and KLM
faded into the background. I do hope this new service isn’t being
subsidised from the public purse (national, county or district).

Air France-KLM’s long-term strategy is to bravely accept the fact
that can’t afford to compete with BA for the valuable and expensive
slots at Heathrow. Instead, they will subvert and bypass Heathrow’s
position by funnelling regional traffic (which would otherwise go to
Heathrow) to their own hubs at Amsterdam Schiphol and Paris Charles de
Gaulle. I suppose this is one solution to the much-discussed problem of
air capacity in south-east England – simply export or outsource it to
continental Europe.

Timing

One major advantage that the KLM timetable has over, for example, the
FlyBe Edinburgh timetable, is that it allows passengers to make same
day return journeys. This is a key feature for most business travellers.
Of course, one of the morning flights leaves at 6.35am – permissible
only because of a loophole in the appallingly drafted Section 106
agreement (between the Council and the airport operator, that defines
how the airport operates).

The S106 forbids scheduled flights before 7am, unless they are going
to Europe or the USA, in which case they banned before 6am. This is
stupid – Europe is ahead of GMT, America is behind, but the same time
shift is allowed for both. And, of course, it makes no difference to the
tens of thousands of people who live under the flight path where any
particular plane is going – it’s the time of day that matters, and
whether it’s disrupting their lives and businesses.

Time

Thanks to the instant wizardry of the internet and flight comparison sites like Expedia,
everyone can be their own travel agent. It’s easy to compare just how
expensive and convenient any flight is in comparison to all the others
available. As I’ve explained, Air France-KLM’s strategy is to channel
people through their own hubs, which may be great for them, but isn’t so
jolly for the passengers…

• Flying to Faro in Portugal would take 10½ hours from Manston, but 3½ hours from the (competing) London airports.
• Flying to Cape Town in South Africa would take 25 hours, as opposed to 12 hours from the (competing) London airports.
• Flying to Brisbane in Australia would take 35 hours instead of 23 hours from the (competing) London airports.

The extra time is spent sitting in airports, eating airport food, and
eating into valuable holiday time. Even if the potential passengers of
east Kent don’t realise this before they book, the odds are it’s not a
mistake they’ll make twice. So much for repeat business. Manston is
unlikely to deliver a steady stream of passengers wanting to connect to
Air France-KLM’s international hubs.

Money

There’s a significant risk that KLM will price themselves out of the
market they just created for themselves. KLM aren’t cheap, and the
Manston service will face two major sources of competition: KLM
themselves, who operate cheaper flights to Amsterdam from the London
airports; and several other airlines (notably EasyJet) who are about
half the price of KLM.

Outlook

Half the seats on KLM flights are reserved for business class. They
are unlikely to be fully booked. The ticket-buying public will realise
that international flights from Manston are slow and expensive. The
Manston service will become a city-hopper service to Amsterdam (there
will be very little inbound tourist traffic) for romantic weekends, stag and hen nights, and a handful of business suits.

That’s not enough to sustain the service in the longer term, and it’s
certainly not enough to reverse Manston’s (mis)fortunes. We’ll have to
put up with night flights, and Manston will keep sinking.

All aboard the 4.20am flight to Amsterdam?

Let’s
have a quick look at the latest exciting news to come from Manston
airport. The suggestion is that KLM’s decision as whether or not to run a
twice a day service between Manton and Schipol will be influenced (but
not decided) by the response to Manston’s online survey.

• Charles Buchanan says that KLM would have a plane parked at Manston overnight, ready to fly to Schipol each morning.
• Charles Buchanan has often said that planes only make money when
  they are in the air, so it follows that KLM would want their “Manston”
  plane back in Schipol bright and early so that it has plenty of working
  (flying) hours ahead of it through the rest of the day.
• Schipol Airport is effectively closed between 10pm and 6am, and Amsterdam is one hour ahead of us (at the moment).
• The flight time from Manston to Schipol would be about 40 minutes.
• To arrive in Schipol at 6am (local time), KLM’s “Manston” plane would have to leave at 4.20am (local time).
• The online questionnaire doesn’t ask what time of day people would like to fly – now you know why.
• The online questionnaire doesn’t ask how much people would be prepared to pay for their flight.

As influential local commentator Maurice Byford has pointed out:

Any business worth its salt would carry out due diligence, population
and traffic analysis and SWOT analysis without resorting to a survey.
You might want to ask, how many people travel to Europe from Kent, but
then you need only look at the traffic figures from EuroStar train from
to see the passenger footfall for Belgium.

There are plenty of reputable consultancies that specialise in
providing detailed economic and demographic analyses to help businesses
make rational commercial decisions. They have access to all the
available data on business activities, income distribution and
socio-economic groupings by post code. They have a pretty good idea how
many people run businesses with European interests, and how many people
are likely to take weekend jaunts to the Continent or connect to
long-haul flights.

It is very likely that KLM have already done their homework, which is why they were looking for £600,000 of public money
to underwrite the risk of operating from Manston. The online survey
doesn’t cover two of the questions that KLM most clearly need answered –
how much will people pay, and how willing are they to accept KLM’s
offering (i.e. first thing and last thing, and nothing in between).

Airlines are high investment, high throughput, low margin businesses.
They employ people full-time to examine every available business
opportunity, and re-examine each option every couple of years. All of
the major airlines will have examined and re-examined Manston over the
years it has been owned by Infratil. With the exception of FlyBe’s
tentative experiment with a couple of minor routes (which failed for
lack of passengers), there have been no takers.

KLM’s interest in Manston may simply be that it is cheaper to park a
plane there than at Schipol, and there’s the possibility that the
passenger fares would exceed the fuel costs to Schipol. In all
probability, KLM will discover what others have discovered before them –
Manston’s catchment area cannot support a successful passenger or
freight airport. It doesn’t matter how keen the local residents or the
local businesses are – there simple aren’t enough of them.

After years of fanciful forecasts, missed targets and false hopes,
this may be Infratil’s legacy – a minimal passenger service that only
ever flies at night, while the airport is almost entirely idle through
the 16 hours of daytime. This is Infratil waving goodbye, with two
fingers.